Impact of Recent Increase in Incidence on Future Diabetes Burden, U.S., 2005–2050

VENKAT NARAYAN, JAMES P. BOYLE, LINDA S. GEISS, JINAN B. SAADDINE, THEODORE J. THOMPSON

ABSTRACT

In an earlier study, we had forecasted 39 million with diagnosed diabetes in 2050 in the U.S. (1,2). However, since then, national diabetes incidence increased (3) and the relative risk of death among people with diabetes declined (4,5). These changes will impact future forecasts. Incorporating these changes, we now project 48.3 million people with diagnosed diabetes in the U.S. in 2050. We also present age-, sex-, and race/ethnicityspecific forecasts, with Bayesian CIs, of the number of people with diagnosed diabetes through 2050.

Keywords : diabetes burden,diabetes burden in the world,diabetes burden of disease, inpact of recent increase, future diabetes in US, 2050

Sumber : DIABETES CARE, VOLUME 29, NUMBER 9, SEPTEMBER 2006

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